The U.S. strike on Venezuela has dramatically altered the landscape for guerrilla warfare, sparking concerns of potential treachery and the specter of a broader conflict. But here's where it gets controversial: it also presents an opportunity for these groups to unite and resist, potentially escalating tensions further.
A Shifting Battlefield:
The U.S. attack has sent shockwaves through the guerrilla factions operating along the Venezuela-Colombia border. Local security analysts warn that the attack has heightened fears of betrayal from within the Venezuelan regime, which could lead to the exposure of guerrilla locations and subsequent strikes. But the real game-changer is the possibility of U.S. ground troops, which could ignite a larger conflict.
Guerrilla Groups on High Alert:
Since the January 3rd attacks, there's been a noticeable increase in guerrilla activity on both sides of the border. The National Liberation Army (ELN), a formidable force in the region, has taken precautions by closing some of its camps in Venezuela, fearing their locations might be compromised. Experts reveal that the ELN is restructuring its security protocols and tightening its grip on the communities it controls in Venezuela, where its leaders are based.
Anticipating U.S. Action:
The ELN has been bracing for a U.S. attack for some time. In September, one of their chief negotiators, Pablo Beltrán, hinted at a potential U.S. strike over Venezuela's resources. This suspicion was further fueled by a 2019 letter from the ELN to then-President Nicolás Maduro, intercepted by Colombian intelligence, warning of traitors within the Venezuelan military's top ranks.
A Continental Guerrilla Force?
Should the U.S. military establish a presence in Venezuela or if the Venezuelan regime fractures, the ELN could realize its ambition of becoming a continental guerrilla force. This would provide the ELN with the military and political platform it has long sought, transforming it into a symbol of resistance across Latin America, not just Colombia and Venezuela.
A Call for Unity:
In a recent development, the leader of an ELN rival group, Ivan Mordisco, has urged guerrilla factions to unite with the Venezuelan military to counter the U.S. threat. Mordisco, a former member of the disbanded Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), argues that all armed groups should put aside their differences as they share a common enemy. However, this call for unity may fall on deaf ears, as Mordisco is not widely trusted and is a high-profile criminal with a $1 million bounty on his head.
A Complex History:
The ELN, with an estimated force of 6,000-8,000 members, operates in both Colombia and Venezuela and controls a significant portion of the borderlands. It has a deep-rooted history with the Venezuelan regime, dating back to the Hugo Chávez presidency in 1998. The ELN's leadership relocated to Venezuela in 2002 and shares the regime's political ideology, viewing the defense of Venezuela's Bolivarian Revolution as a sacred duty.
International Response:
The U.S. and Colombia have recently agreed to collaborate in combating the ELN, with Colombian President Gustavo Petro set to visit the White House soon. However, critics argue that U.S. funding to the Colombian military has historically failed to bring peace. Human rights advocate Eliana Paola Zafra advocates for a comprehensive peace strategy that empowers Latin American communities to protect life, peace, and human rights.
This complex situation highlights the delicate balance between national security, guerrilla warfare, and the potential for escalating conflict. The U.S. attack has set in motion a series of events that could have far-reaching consequences for the region. And this is the part most people miss: it's not just about the immediate response to the attack but the long-term implications for Venezuela, Colombia, and the broader Latin American geopolitical landscape.
